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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."